Jan. 10
\nPakistan\u2019s slow progress toward developing a stable and inclusive political system faced new challenges in the second half of 2017, and the US president’s recent tweets could make matters worse. If Pakistan continues to falter in 2018, the consequences will be felt across South Asia and the broader Muslim world.
\nLAHORE \u2013 Pakistan has now joined the ranks of countries hit by one of US President Donald Trump\u2019s characteristic tweet storms. In his first tweet of 2018, Trump declared that the United States has \u201cfoolishly\u201d given Pakistan more than $33 billion in aid over the last 15 years, while Pakistan had returned only \u201clies and deceit\u201d and given safe haven to the terrorists America hunts in Afghanistan. \u201cNo more!\u201d Trump concluded. And now the US is freezing its aid to the country.
\nLike his saber-rattling toward North Korea or his unilateral decision to recognize Jerusalem as the capital of Israel, Trump\u2019s attacks on Pakistan may play well with his base. But it will also have serious repercussions for Pakistan, where a number of shocks in the second half of 2017 have destabilized the country politically. And if Pakistan stumbles, the consequences will be felt across South Asia and in other parts of the Muslim world, where a functioning political system in Pakistan could serve as a valuable model.
\nThe roughly 50 Muslim-majority countries stretching from Bangladesh to Morocco have largely struggled to develop politically. Under President Recep Tayyip Erdo\u011fan\u2019s leadership, Turkey, which once boasted a functioning democratic system, has been slipping toward authoritarian rule. Bangladesh, too, seems to be turning into a one-party system, after having made notable headway, particularly on the economic front. Now Pakistan \u2013 in a sense, the region\u2019s best remaining hope \u2013 is also facing potentially disruptive setbacks.
\nContrary to Trump\u2019s accusations, Pakistan has made steady, albeit slow, progress over the last decade, both in combating terrorism and in consolidating democratic institutions. That progress began in 2007, when a group of lawyers initiated a mass protest movement in response to an unconstitutional decision by Pervez Musharraf, Pakistan\u2019s fourth military president, to suspend the chief justice of the Supreme Court. The movement, backed by several political parties, ultimately forced Musharraf to step down in 2008, to avoid impeachment.
\nIn the subsequent general election, the Pakistan Peoples Party won enough seats in the national assembly to form a solid government. The PPP\u2019s political rival, the Pakistan Muslim League (Nawaz) won a majority of seats in the Punjab provincial assembly, giving it control of the country\u2019s largest province. Competitive politics had come to Pakistan.
\nAfter the PPP\u2019s five-year term, the PML(N), led by Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif, won the next general election, while maintaining its hold over Punjab. The transfer of power occurred peacefully, with the PPP moving into opposition. Pakistan had passed another milestone.
\nThe still-powerful generals watched these developments from the barracks to which they had retreated. After more than 60 years of changes in military leadership coming only after coups, the civilian-led government replaced the commander of the armed forces at the end of his term. This was the third momentous achievement for the rule of law and democratic development in Pakistan, which now seemed to be in a strong position to continue strengthening its political system and institutions. Its fairly well-developed political parties competed on a level playing field, elections were held when the constitution so required, and transfers of power occurred without violence.
\nThen, in 2016, the release of the Panama Papers exposed the extent of tax evasion by the world\u2019s wealthy. Members of the Sharif family, it was revealed, had illegally transferred huge amounts of money into numerous offshore companies, which had then invested in expensive properties in London and the Middle East.
\nThese disclosures opened the way for Pakistan\u2019s own \u201cArab Spring\u201d moment, with young people rebelling against the elite-dominated political system. Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf \u2013 a political party led by the former cricketer Imran Khan \u2013 provided just the platform for that rebellion.
\nFeaturing a platform that includes a focus on justice and good governance, PTI had been gaining ground since the 2008 election, and received a new surge of support from urban youth demanding better services and less corruption. That is no small cohort: some 75% of people in Pakistan\u2019s large cities are below the age of 25.
\nWielding its growing influence, the PTI threatened to call its young supporters into the streets if the Sharif family\u2019s financial dealings were not properly investigated. Given Pakistan\u2019s history of military intervention in politics \u2013 in 1958, 1969, and 1977 \u2013 in response to popular protest, the PTI\u2019s threat had to be viewed very seriously.
\nPakistan avoided political escalation when the judiciary decided to investigate the Panama Papers\u2019 revelations. In July 2017, the Supreme Court announced its verdict: Sharif had acted improperly, and could not remain a member of the national assembly, let alone prime minister. The PML(N) elected Shahid Khaqan Abbasi, a respected cabinet member, as Sharif\u2019s successor as party leader and prime minister. Military leaders expressed satisfaction at how the situation was handled.
\nAt the same time, given the fragility of its democratic institutions and the lingering threat of terrorism, the destabilizing potential of Sharif\u2019s removal should not be underestimated. Trump\u2019s insistence on playing to his nationalist and xenophobic (and, specifically, anti-Muslim) base, instead of advancing the real national security interests of the US, heightens the risk.
\nThere is, however, some reason for hope. Pakistan\u2019s response to its recent political challenges indicates a continued commitment to fight for democracy \u2013 a commitment that could serve as a badly needed model for many other Muslim-majority countries.
\nSHAHID JAVED BURKI
\nWriting for PS since 2010
\n27 Commentaries
\nShahid Javed Burki, former Finance Minister of Pakistan and Vice President of the World Bank, is currently Chairman of the Shahid Javed Burki Institute of Public Policy in Lahore. <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Jan. 10 Pakistan\u2019s slow progress toward developing a stable and inclusive political system faced new challenges in the second half of 2017, and the US president’s recent tweets could make matters worse. If Pakistan continues to falter in 2018, the consequences will be felt across South Asia and the broader Muslim world. LAHORE \u2013 Pakistan has now joined the ranks of countries hit by one of US President Donald Trump\u2019s characteristic tweet storms. In his first tweet of 2018, Trump declared that the United States has \u201cfoolishly\u201d given Pakistan more than $33 billion in aid over the last 15 years, while Pakistan had returned only \u201clies and deceit\u201d and given safe haven to the terrorists America hunts in Afghanistan. \u201cNo more!\u201d Trump concluded. And now the US is freezing its aid to the country. Like his saber-rattling toward North Korea or his unilateral decision to recognize Jerusalem as the capital of Israel, Trump\u2019s attacks on Pakistan may play well with his base. But it will also have serious repercussions for Pakistan, where a number of shocks in the second half of 2017 have destabilized the country politically. And if Pakistan stumbles, the consequences will be felt across South Asia and…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":196,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[5,8],"tags":[],"acf":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/english.tukhabar.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/195"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/english.tukhabar.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/english.tukhabar.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/english.tukhabar.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/english.tukhabar.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=195"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/english.tukhabar.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/195\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/english.tukhabar.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/196"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/english.tukhabar.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=195"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/english.tukhabar.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=195"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/english.tukhabar.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=195"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}